RBA Minutes Show Rates Unlikely to Change

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s board meeting on March 1 gave no indication that another interest rate rise was imminent.

Key to this decision was a steady outlook for economic growth and inflation, aside from the transitory effects of wild weather, which would boost inflation and depress growth over the December and March quarters before having the opposite effects later in 2011.

Much of the discussion of domestic conditions was around the effect of the floods and Cyclone Yasi, but the minutes reiterated the RBA’s determination not to be distracted by these short-term effects.

‘‘Members confirmed that the board’s approach would be to look through temporary effects caused by extreme weather events and to continue to set monetary policy based on the medium term outlook for growth and inflation.’’

With the unemployment rate already at a low five per cent and the RBA’s latest official forecasts already showing inflation heading to the top of the target range over the coming two years, the main risk for the future is still rising inflation rather than slowing growth.

Accordingly, the odds still favour another increase or two in the cash rate from the current 4.75 per cent.

Still, the minutes show no sign the RBA is contemplating such a move in the next few months.

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